Spatial Sensitivity Of Predicted Soil Erosion And Runoff To Climate Change At Regional Scales PdfBy Melissa M. In and pdf 21.04.2021 at 11:42 9 min read
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Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds Part II assessing impacts from changes in storm rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation cover. Hydrological Processes 23 8 : ,
- Spatial sensitivity of predicted soil erosion and runoff to climate change at regional scales
- An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion
- Soil Control on Runoff Response to Climate Change in Regional Climate Model Simulations
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Climate change, land degradation and land use are linked in a complex web of causality.
Spatial sensitivity of predicted soil erosion and runoff to climate change at regional scales
Climate change, land degradation and land use are linked in a complex web of causality. One important impact of climate change on land degradation is that increasing global temperatures intensify the hydrological cycle, resulting in more intense rainfall, which is an important driver of soil erosion.
This means that sustainable land management SLM becomes even more important with climate change. Land-use change in the form of clearing of forest for rangeland and cropland e. Many SLM practices e. Avoiding, reducing and reversing land degradation has a large potential to mitigate climate change and help communities to adapt to climate change. Climate change will affect land-related ecosystem services e. The direct impacts range from subtle reductions or enhancements of specific services, such as biological productivity, resulting from changes in temperature, temperature variability or rainfall, to complete disruption and elimination of services.
Disruptions of ecosystem services can occur where climate change causes transitions from one biome to another, for example, forest to grassland as a result of changes in water balance or natural disturbance regimes. Climate change will result in range shifts and, in some cases, extinction of species. Climate change can also alter the mix of land-related ecosystem services, such as groundwater recharge, purification of water, and flood protection.
While the net impacts are specific to time as well as ecosystem types and services, there is an asymmetry of risk such that overall impacts of climate change are expected to reduce ecosystem services.
Indirect impacts of climate change on land-related ecosystem services include those that result from changes in human behaviour, including potential large-scale human migrations or the implementation of afforestation, reforestation or other changes in land management, which can have positive or negative outcomes on ecosystem services.
Land degradation affects people and ecosystems throughout the planet and is both affected by climate change and contributes to it. In this report, land degradation is defined as a negative trend in land condition, caused by direct or indirect human-induced processes including anthropogenic climate change, expressed as long-term reduction or loss of at least one of the following: biological productivity , ecological integrity, or value to humans. Forest degradation is land degradation that occurs in forest land.
Deforestation is the conversion of forest to non-forest land and can result in land degradation. The majority of the 1. Land-use changes and unsustainable land management are direct human causes of land degradation very high confidence , with agriculture being a dominant sector driving degradation very high confidence.
Land degradation affects humans in multiple ways, interacting with social, political, cultural and economic aspects, including markets, technology, inequality and demographic change very high confidence.
Land degradation impacts extend beyond the land surface itself, affecting marine and freshwater systems, as well as people and ecosystems far away from the local sites of degradation very high confidence. Climate change exacerbates the rate and magnitude of several ongoing land degradation processes and introduces new degradation patterns high confidence. In some areas sea level rise has exacerbated coastal erosion medium confidence. Global warming beyond present day will further exacerbate ongoing land degradation processes through increasing floods medium confidence , drought frequency and severity medium confidence , intensified cyclones medium confidence , and sea level rise very high confidence , with outcomes being modulated by land management very high confidence.
Permafrost thawing due to warming high confidence , and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and impacts of changing storm paths low confidence , are examples of land degradation affecting places where it has not typically been a problem. Erosion of coastal areas because of sea level rise will increase worldwide high confidence. In cyclone prone areas, the combination of sea level rise and more intense cyclones will cause land degradation with serious consequences for people and livelihoods very high confidence.
Land degradation and climate change, both individually and in combination, have profound implications for natural resource-based livelihood systems and societal groups high confidence. The number of people whose livelihood depends on degraded lands has been estimated to be about 1. People in degraded areas who directly depend on natural resources for subsistence, food security and income, including women and youth with limited adaptation options, are especially vulnerable to land degradation and climate change high confidence.
Land degradation reduces land productivity and increases the workload of managing the land, affecting women disproportionally in some regions. Land degradation and climate change act as threat multipliers for already precarious livelihoods very high confidence , leaving them highly sensitive to extreme climatic events, with consequences such as poverty and food insecurity high confidence and, in some cases, migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage low confidence.
Changes in vegetation cover and distribution due to climate change increase the risk of land degradation in some areas medium confidence. Climate change will have detrimental effects on livelihoods, habitats and infrastructure through increased rates of land degradation high confidence and from new degradation patterns low evidence, high agreement.
Land degradation is a driver of climate change through emission of greenhouse gases GHGs and reduced rates of carbon uptake very high confidence. Lower carbon density in re-growing forests, compared to carbon stocks before deforestation, results in net emissions from land-use change very high confidence.
Forest management that reduces carbon stocks of forest land also leads to emissions, but global estimates of these emissions are uncertain. Of the land degradation processes, deforestation, increasing wildfires, degradation of peat soils, and permafrost thawing contribute most to climate change through the release of GHGs and the reduction in land carbon sinks following deforestation high confidence.
Agricultural practices also emit non-CO 2 GHGs from soils and these emissions are exacerbated by climate change medium confidence. Conversion of primary to managed forests, illegal logging and unsustainable forest management result in GHG emissions very high confidence and can have additional physical effects on the regional climate including those arising from albedo shifts medium confidence. These interactions call for more integrative climate impact assessments.
Large-scale implementation of dedicated biomass production for bioenergy increases competition for land with potentially serious consequences for food security and land degradation high confidence.
Increasing the extent and intensity of biomass production, for example, through fertiliser additions, irrigation or monoculture energy plantations, can result in local land degradation. Poorly implemented intensification of land management contributes to land degradation e. In areas where afforestation and reforestation occur on previously degraded lands, opportunities exist to restore and rehabilitate lands with potentially significant co-benefits high confidence that depend on whether restoration involves natural or plantation forests.
The total area of degraded lands has been estimated at 10—60 Mkm 2 very low confidence. The extent of degraded and marginal lands suitable for dedicated biomass production is highly uncertain and cannot be established without due consideration of current land use and land tenure.
Increasing the area of dedicated energy crops can lead to land degradation elsewhere through indirect land-use change medium confidence. Impacts of energy crops can be reduced through strategic integration with agricultural and forestry systems high confidence but the total quantity of biomass that can be produced through synergistic production systems is unknown.
Reducing unsustainable use of traditional biomass reduces land degradation and emissions of CO 2 while providing social and economic co-benefits very high confidence. Enhanced forest protection, improved forest and agricultural management, fuel-switching and adoption of efficient cooking and heating appliances can promote more sustainable biomass use and reduce land degradation, with co-benefits of reduced GHG emissions, improved human health, and reduced workload especially for women and youth very high confidence.
Land degradation can be avoided, reduced or reversed by implementing sustainable land management, restoration and rehabilitation practices that simultaneously provide many co-benefits, including adaptation to and mitigation of climate change high confidence. Sustainable land management involves a comprehensive array of technologies and enabling conditions, which have proven to address land degradation at multiple landscape scales, from local farms very high confidence to entire watersheds medium confidence.
Sustainable forest management can prevent deforestation, maintain and enhance carbon sinks and can contribute towards GHG emissions-reduction goals. While sustainable forest management sustains high carbon sinks, the conversion from primary forests to sustainably managed forests can result in carbon emission during the transition and loss of biodiversity high confidence.
Conversely, in areas of degraded forests, sustainable forest management can increase carbon stocks and biodiversity medium confidence. Carbon storage in long-lived wood products and reductions of emissions from use of wood products to substitute for emissions-intensive materials also contribute to mitigation objectives.
Lack of action to address land degradation will increase emissions and reduce carbon sinks and is inconsistent with the emissions reductions required to limit global warming to 1. Measures to avoid, reduce and reverse land degradation are available but economic, political, institutional, legal and socio-cultural barriers, including lack of access to resources and knowledge, restrict their uptake very high confidence.
Proven measures that facilitate implementation of practices that avoid, reduce, or reverse land degradation include tenure reform, tax incentives, payments for ecosystem services, participatory integrated land-use planning, farmer networks and rural advisory services. Delayed action increases the costs of addressing land degradation, and can lead to irreversible biophysical and human outcomes high confidence. Early actions can generate both site-specific and immediate benefits to communities affected by land degradation, and contribute to long-term global benefits through climate change mitigation high confidence.
Even with adequate implementation of measures to avoid, reduce and reverse land degradation, there will be residual degradation in some situations high confidence. Limits to adaptation are dynamic, site specific and determined through the interaction of biophysical changes with social and institutional conditions. Exceeding the limits of adaptation will trigger escalating losses or result in undesirable changes, such as forced migration, conflicts, or poverty.
Examples of potential limits to adaptation due to climate-change-induced land degradation are coastal erosion where land disappears, collapsing infrastructure and livelihoods due to thawing of permafrost , and extreme forms of soil erosion. Land degradation is a serious and widespread problem, yet key uncertainties remain concerning its extent, severity, and linkages to climate change very high confidence. Despite the difficulties of objectively measuring the extent and severity of land degradation, given its complex and value-based characteristics, land degradation represents — along with climate change — one of the biggest and most urgent challenges for humanity very high confidence.
The current global extent, severity and rates of land degradation are not well quantified. There is no single method by which land degradation can be measured objectively and consistently over large areas because it is such a complex and value-laden concept very high confidence. However, many existing scientific and locally-based approaches, including the use of indigenous and local knowledge, can assess different aspects of land degradation or provide proxies.
Remote sensing, corroborated by other data, can generate geographically explicit and globally consistent data that can be used as proxies over relevant time scales several decades. Few studies have specifically addressed the impacts of proposed land-based negative emission technologies on land degradation.
Much research has tried to understand how livelihoods and ecosystems are affected by a particular stressor — for example, drought, heat stress, or waterlogging.
Important knowledge gaps remain in understanding how plants, habitats and ecosystems are affected by the cumulative and interacting impacts of several stressors, including potential new stressors resulting from large-scale implementation of negative emission technologies. This chapter examines the scientific understanding of how climate change impacts land degradation, and vice versa, with a focus on non-drylands.
Land degradation of drylands is covered in Chapter 3. After providing definitions and the context Section 4. Two sections are devoted to a systematic assessment of the scientific literature on status and trend of land degradation Section 4.
Then follows a section where we assess the impacts of climate change mitigation options, bioenergy and land-based technologies for carbon dioxide removal CDR , on land degradation Section 4. The ways in which land degradation can impact on climate and climate change are assessed in Section 4. The impacts of climate-related land degradation on human and natural systems are assessed in Section 4.
The remainder of the chapter assesses land degradation mitigation options based on the concept of sustainable land management: avoid, reduce and reverse land degradation Section 4. The chapter ends with a discussion of the most critical knowledge gaps and areas for further research Section 4.
Land degradation has accompanied humanity at least since the widespread adoption of agriculture during Neolithic time, some 10, to 7, years ago Dotterweich 2 ; Butzer 3 ; Dotterweich 4 and the associated population increase Bocquet-Appel 5. There are indications that the levels of greenhouse gases GHGs — particularly carbon dioxide CO 2 and methane CH 4 — in the atmosphere already started to increase more than 3, years ago as a result of expanding agriculture, clearing of forests, and domestication of wild animals Fuller et al.
While the development of agriculture cropping and animal husbandry underpinned the development of civilisations, political institutions and prosperity, farming practices led to conversion of forests and grasslands to farmland, and the heavy reliance on domesticated annual grasses for our food production meant that soils started to deteriorate through seasonal mechanical disturbances Turner et al.
More recently, urbanisation has significantly altered ecosystems Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 2. See Chapter 2 for more details.
Not all human impacts on land result in degradation according to the definition of land degradation used in this report Section 4. There are many examples of long-term sustainably managed land around.
We also acknowledge that human use of land and ecosystems provides essential goods and services for society Foley et al. Land degradation was long subject to a polarised scientific debate between disciplines and perspectives in which social scientists often proposed that natural scientists exaggerated land degradation as a global problem Blaikie and Brookfield 18 ; Forsyth 19 ; Lukas 20 ; Zimmerer The elusiveness of the concept in combination with the difficulties of measuring and monitoring land degradation at global and regional scales by extrapolation and aggregation of empirical studies at local scales, such as the Global Assessment of Soil Degradation database GLASOD Sonneveld and Dent 22 contributed to conflicting views.
The conflicting views were not confined to science only, but also caused tension between the scientific understanding of land degradation and policy Andersson et al.
Another weakness of many land degradation studies is the exclusion of the views and experiences of the land users, whether farmers or forest-dependent communities Blaikie and Brookfield 27 ; Fairhead and Scoones 28 ; Warren 29 ; Andersson et al. More recently, the polarised views described above have been reconciled under the umbrella of Land Change Science, which has emerged as an interdisciplinary field aimed at examining the dynamics of land cover and land-use as a coupled human-environment system Turner et al.
A comprehensive discussion about concepts and different perspectives of land degradation was presented in Chapter 2 of the recent report from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services IPBES on land degradation Montanarella et al.
In summary, agriculture and clearing of land for food and wood products have been the main drivers of land degradation for millennia high confidence.
An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion
Spatial downscaling of climate change scenarios can be a significant source of uncertainty in simulating climatic impacts on soil erosion, hydrology, and crop production. The explicit method, in contrast to the implicit method, explicitly considers spatial differences of climate scenarios and variability during downscaling. Monthly projections of precipitation and temperature during — were used in the implicit and explicit spatial downscaling. A stochastic weather generator CLIGEN was then used to disaggregate monthly values to daily weather series following the spatial downscaling. Both explicit and implicit methods projected general increases in annual precipitation and temperature during — at the Changwu station. However, relative climate changes downscaled by the explicit method, as compared to the implicit method, appeared more dynamic or variable.
Human activity and related land use change are the primary cause of accelerated soil erosion, which has substantial implications for nutrient and carbon cycling, land productivity and in turn, worldwide socio-economic conditions. We challenge the previous annual soil erosion reference values as our estimate, of Moreover, we estimate the spatial and temporal effects of land use change between and and the potential offset of the global application of conservation practices. Our findings indicate a potential overall increase in global soil erosion driven by cropland expansion. The least developed economies have been found to experience the highest estimates of soil erosion rates. Healthy soil is the foundation of agriculture and an essential resource to ensure human needs in the 21st century 1 , such as food, feed, fibre, clean water and clean air.
PDF | Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that climate conditions predicted by three general circulation models for three hydrologic regions with the highest mean vulnerability to erosion are 5, an analysis of the spatial changes of R based a regional sensitivity assessment of natural.
Soil Control on Runoff Response to Climate Change in Regional Climate Model Simulations
High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing RS data and a geographic information system GIS to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between and , and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation RUSLE was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes 40 million tonnes in and 42 million tonnes in
Why is it necessary and even vital to maintain the global temperature increase below 1. Adaptation will be less difficult. Our world will suffer less negative impacts on intensity and frequency of extreme events, on resources, ecosystems, biodiversity, food security, cities, tourism, and carbon removal. Summary : The impacts of climate change are being felt in every inhabited continent and in the oceans. However, they are not spread uniformly across the globe, and different parts of the world experience impacts differently.
In rainfed agriculture systems, rainfall water management harvesting, storage, and efficient use is a key issue. At local scale i. In order to accurately depict the space and time variations of rainfall at local scale, a dense rain-gauges network composed of 45 rain-gauges has been deployed over km 2 area, in Burgundy vineyards North-East France.
Effective soil erosion prediction models and proper conservation practices are important tools to mitigate soil erosion in hillside agricultural areas. We calibrated both the models in maize monocropping and simultaneously validated them in maize-chili intercropping with Leucaena hedgerow for nine rainfall events in , with the aim to evaluate their performances in runoff and sediment prediction on a skeleton soil in a hillslope, Western Thailand.
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Climate change may be associated with a considerable change in the hydrological cycle in various regions of the world Houghton et al. In many applications aimed at the assessment of climate-induced changes in the hydrology of large river basins, use is made of a chain of deterministic models: general circulation models GCMs providing global projections of present and future weather and climate, statistical or dynamical downscaling tools to enhance spatial and temporal detail of relevant meteorological forcings, hydrological models focusing on the partitioning of precipitation over evaporation, soil storage and runoff generation, and hydraulic models of the organized water transport via a river network. The downscaling step is considered to add information by explicit use of local parameters that generate meteorological variability orography, land—sea masks, land use, and soil information, etc. Dynamical downscaling via regional climate models RCMs is explored widely, as to some extent it avoids assumptions of static relations between large-scale meteorological dynamics and local weather variables, as used in many statistical downscaling techniques Murphy Obviously, the assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle depends on the ability of the GCM and RCM systems to accurately simulate this cycle and the feedback processes acting on it.
Citation: Binoy Kumar Barman, K. Prasad, Uttam Kumar Sahoo. Soil erosion assessment using revised universal soil loss equation model and geo-spatial technology: A case study of upper Tuirial river basin, Mizoram, India[J]. AIMS Geosciences, , 6 4 : Article views PDF downloads Cited by 0. Binoy Kumar Barman, K.
PDF | Climate change is expected to impact runoff and soil erosion on rangelands in the western United States. Predicted soil loss from shrub communities increased more than that at the regional scale. cipitation and cover with a sensitivity analysis exists spatial and temporal scale mismatch.
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